With Half of the Quarter Final Field Set, it’s time to set out the predictions.
Last night, half of the quarter-final field was decided, on both the women’s and men’s side of the bracket.
Aryna Sabalenka easily disposed of Cristina Bucsa in just over an hour; meanwhile, 2023 Wimbledon Champions Marketa Vondrousova shocked ninth seed Elena Rybakina in a thrilling three-setter. While the Sabalenka v Rybakina meeting had been circled as a potential mouth-watering tie from the off, as it so often happens in tennis, an unexpected member has joined the party.
Jessica Pegula swatted aside fellow American Ann Li to keep her dream alive of bettering last year’s run to the final. She will now face Barbora Krejcikova, a two-time Grand Slam Champion, who admitted that her future on court was in doubt amidst recent injury struggles.
On the men’s side, Novak Djokovic kept his dream alive of a twenty-fifth Grand Slam with a routine victory over big-hitting Jan Lennard Struff. He will face Taylor Fritz, who breezed past the flashy Thomas Machac in impressive fashion.
The final two to meet will be Jiri Lehecka and Carlos Alcaraz, who both progressed past Frenchmen, although the former needed four sets. Adrian Mannarino and Arthur Rinderknech were the casualties, seeing ends to prospectively good campaigns.
Aryna Sabalenka v Marketa Vondrousova
Head to Head : 5-4 (4-1 on Outdoor Hard)
What’s your reward for beating Rybakina? A meeting with world number one Aryna Sabalenka, of course. Sound good? Grand Slam tennis can sure be a difficult world.
Vondrousova is no stranger to such situations. During her run to Berlin glory earlier this year, she saw off Maddison Keys, Diana Shnaider, Ons Jabeur and Sabalenka herself in the process. In the most respectful way, she is the very definition of a prediction-breaker. A headache for the odd-makers. At the beginning of any tournament, a first-round straight-sets exit can seem as likely as a run to the semi-finals.
When she finds her game, she can be such a tough nut to crack. Her lefty serve is a weapon, whipping opponents off the court, and an ever reliable backhand allows her to redirect the power of the opponent’s forehand in the crosscourt battle down the line. Against Sabalenka, she will need to do a whole lot of that.
We all know Sabalenka’s game; she will go in with the goal of blowing the world number 60 off the court. In recent months, she has added craft to her arsenal, with the increased use of the drop shot, but at pressure moments, she reverts to what she finds comfortable: her all-conquering groundstrokes. This is to be expected. Under the most extreme stress at any time in life, we tend to revert to what we know best; it’s a natural part of human behaviour.
Usefully, we have two recent data points for this clash. As mentioned, the pair met in the Berlin Open Semi-final earlier this year. Voundrousova would win with surprising ease, 6-4, 6-2. It’s important to give this match some context. In that period, Sabalenka had just lost the Roland Garros Final, with her ungraceful post-match comments leaving her in a cloud of controversy. From a mental point of view, trying to block all the noise out could have affected her.
Having said that, take nothing away from Vondrousova’s performance. A previous Wimbledon Champion, she seemed much more comfortable on the grass, able to step in and play with a more compact swing, and was much more astute at the net. She was also better placed her serve, setting up easier second and third shots. In comparison, Sabalenka won just 30% of her second serve points.
Although we have a more relevant example in Cincinnati, just a few weeks ago. On the slightly slower and higher bouncing courts, Sabalenka was able to more easily find her strike zone and ultimately out-power in the big moments. Yet, the first set was close, and the reigning US Open champion had to find her a-game to progress.
A similar story will happen tomorrow. Sabalenka will ultimately prevail, but she will need to fight and find her top level, with Vondrousova in excellent form.
Sabalenka in Three Sets
Jessica Pegula v Barbora Krejcikova
Head-to-Head : 1-2 (1-1 On Outdoor Hard)
Two players who have enjoyed completely different career trajectories. Krejcikova has experienced major success on both the singles and doubles court. Injuries have plagued her and she isn’t a factor all year round at the main events. Six months can easily pass without a statement win or run, yet, as in the 2021 Roland Garros, where she lifted her first singles Grand Slam and in last year’s Wimbledon, she can all of a sudden turn it on.
In contrast, Pegula has enjoyed a much more linear career, gradually improving and climbing up the ranks, through sheer consistency and marginal improvements, to the point where she is now a constant figure at the top end of women’s tennis. After so many years battling at Challenger Level, she finally had her breakthrough in 2021 at the age of 27, finishing the year in the top 20. Since then, she has finished 3rd, 5th and 7th and currently sits 4th in the pile.
While Coco Gauff, Maddison Keys and Amanda Anisimova have made the headlines for American tennis this season, Pegula continues to excel in the background and is yet to lose a set this tournament. She was previously criticised for an inability to transfer results onto the Grand Slam stage, but she silenced those doubters last year with a run to the final, losing narrowly to Aryna Sabalenka.
Both incredibly consistent baseliners; it’ll be fascinating to see who takes the more aggressive approach. Coming so close last year, at 31 years old, Pegula may realise her remaining chances to add a Grand Slam crown to her name, especially in front of her home crowd, will be limited. This pressure plus Krejcikova’s ability to excel at the biggest moments is why I believe the Czech will book a place in the Semi-final with Aryna Sabalenka.
Krejcikova in 2 Sets
Taylor Fritz v Novak Djokovic
Head to Head: 0-10 (0-5 on Outdoor Hard)
“Of course I’m dreaming of another Slam.”
Goosebumps.
Novak Djokovic is here to win and is interested in nothing else. The winning mentality remains deep in his bones, even if his last Grand Slam title came two years ago. You sense a real confidence oozing from the 38-year-old. The only thing that stands in the way of a final is Taylor Fritz and likely Carlos Alcaraz, one whom he has never lost to and another whom he has already beaten at a hard court slam this season.
For Fritz, the head-to-head stat will surely be playing on his mind. How could you lose to someone ten straight times and not have at least a slight inferiority complex? No matter the tactics employed, surface or format, he has yet to crack the Djoker.
Perhaps it’s no little surprise. Fritz’s main strengths are the serve and backhand. His forehand can also be a weapon when given a short ball, which he often forces through his serve. Yet, when he faces Djokovic, one of the greatest returners the game has ever seen, he isn’t given those opportunities. Moreover, the consistent depth forces a different style of game. The backhand battle, an element which Fritz can rely on against most, is no use against Djokovic, who is just as solid on his left wing.
As is customary nowadays with a Djokovic slam run, there have been injury concerns. During his straight sets victory over Struff, he had issues with his neck and forearm, calling for physio on both. Against Cameron Norrie, there were troubles with his back.
He is a thirty-eight-year-old. His body is giving up the tennis fight, but his mind is as strong as ever. Majors are his only concern; he has said as much, and is willing to put himself through the pain and struggle in the chase of an elusive quarter-century mark on the Grand Slam stage.
These are elements that may hold him back against a more physical match against Alcaraz or Sinner, but you feel that he’ll be able to make yet another Grand Slam semi-final.
Djokovic in 4 sets
Carlos Alcaraz v Jiri Lehecka
Head to Head: 2-1 (0-1 on Hard)
Lehecka has the edge on the hard court head-to-head thanks to a shock win over the Spaniard at this year’s Qatar ExxonMobil Open. It was a bit of a strange time of the season for Alcaraz. After losing to Djokovic in the Australian Open, he added to his trophy cabinet with an excellent week in Rotterdam. Afterward, he of course exited early in Doha, then reached the Indian Wells semi-final before falling at the hands of David Goffin in the second round of the Miami Open.
It proved to be an inconsistent blip, as titles in Monte Carlo, Rome and Roland Garros would soon follow and propel him back to the top of men’s tennis.
In Doha, Lehecka was able to turn the game into a power contest. On the forehand, he hit just as big and with more consistency. The world number 21’s power is clear to see. His tree-trunk legs give him such a stable base that he can lean into.
Yet, Grand Slam tennis is a different beast. On the highest stage, considering his potential and firepower, Lehecka has disappointed. This is his first quarter-final since the Australian Open in 2023, and just his third time in the second week of a Slam during that period.
Alcaraz has been untouchable so far this week. The 2022 Champion has yet to lose a set and has settled so comfortably onto the New York hard courts. Expect that trend to continue.
Alcaraz in 3
Beyond The Score 
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