Round eleven of eleven begins at Speilburg, Austria. The quickest lap of the season with a mammoth elevation gain, its high-intensity layout increases the chances of contact, broken front wings and safety cars.
It’s all about confidence on the throttle during a lap around Spielberg. Can you coast at high speed through turns nine and ten? Do you have the throttle control to get straight on the power at turn three? Will you dash your steering from right to left in an instant through the “s” turn of eight and seven?
With this weekend being the third sprint format of the season, it means just one practice slot before five back-to-back sessions of competitive driving. Since introducing the sprint format in 2022, it has had its critics. By tinkering with the layout year after year, it feels as though this season a balance has been struck.
Each day is meaningful. Long gone are the pointless post-qualifying practice two sessions. Moreover, the detached format of last year is a thing of the past, as the Saturday sessions were exhibition-like.
The forecast looks extremely positive with no chance of rain on Friday and just a 6% chance on Saturday and 20% on Sunday.
Team by Team
Red Bull
Red Bull are suffering from what I like to call the “Sergio-Perez dilemma”. In truth, you could name it the “Max Verstappen teammate dilemma” if you wish, but it’s not got much of a ring to it.
It’s difficult to strike a chord with what is really wanted in a teammate for the Dutchman. Ideally it consists of someone who accepts they will play second fiddle to the arguably most talented behind-the-wheel on the grid. Simultaneously, you can’t have them too far back otherwise they hurt the Milton Keynes-based team in the constructors.
Time and time again Sergio Perez has been too far off it this season. While three or four tenths off the pace last season was enough to see him qualify on the front two rows thanks to the dominance of the RB19, this season a more competitive pack has often seen him struggling to reach Q3 and fighting for the bare minimum points. It means that come race day, Red Bull’s strategy is often compromised as they cannot attack with two cars the same way McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes are able to, leaving them vulnerable in the strategy war.
It’s not so long ago that Red Bull seemed destined to stroll to a constructors championship. Their pace was so dominant throughout the weekend and Verstappen was truly in a league of his own. Come Miami though the course would change when Lando Norris would fight for his first victory. Since then Verstappen has managed just one pole in the last four and had to fight strenuously for the victories that have come his way.
| Track | Pole Sitter | Gap to next car not in same team or Verstappen if other winner |
|---|---|---|
| Bahrain | Verstappen | – 0.228 |
| Saudi Arabia | Verstappen | – 0.321 |
| Australia | Verstappen | – 0.270 |
| Japan | Verstappen | – 0.292 |
| China | Verstappen | – 0.488 |
| Miami | Verstappen | – 0.141 |
| Imola | Verstappen | – 0.074 |
| Monaco | Leclerc | + 0.297 |
| Canada | Russell | 0 |
| Spain | Norris | + 0.02 |
The Dutchman is a four time winner around this track, it’ll be interesting to see whether that stands him in good stead.
Ferrari
It’s been a season full of inconsistencies for the Scuderia. At times such as Monaco and Australia they have shown incredible pace. Yet in other weeks such as Montreal and Barcelona they have struggled to be in contention and looked comfortably the fourth quickest vehicle on track. Despite some recent upgrades, Formula One is a relative game, and while they have made technical improvements, others have done so at a quicker pace.
Of course, the dynamic has completely changed at Ferrari. With Lewis Hamilton waiting to replace Carlos Sainz next year, the Spaniard is rather unfortunately fighting for his future among the twenty. There were some frosty comments between Leclerc and Sainz last week after contact was made early on during the Sunday race, as usual things have been blown way out of proportion in the online world.
Fred Vasseur as ever remains grounded through good times and bad, and believes that his team is on track with their long-term vision. Austria has elements that suit their characteristics, can they turn up?
McLaren
2024 has been a season beyond the wildest dreams for McLaren, and whisper it if you will, but they’re in a genuine fight for the constructors championship. Since a disappointing start to 2023, they have gone from strength to strength creating an MCL36 that shows solid performance in high-speed, medium speed and low-speed corners, and possesses great straight-line speed. They are in the luxurious position of being a contender no matter the track they go to.
The ever-changing dynamic has left McLaren in a slight identity crisis. We saw the evident confusion on the radio call as they wondered whether to go for the win or play it safe for the podium. You sense they don’t truly believe they are in a title fight and instead are keeping on track with the process-based way of things in an incremental sense.
There may be slight pressure on Oscar Piastri to raise his game as the Aussie has seen himself play second fiddle to Lando Norris as of late and is coming off a disappointing Spanish Grand Prix. Either way, they will be targetting their second Grand Prix win of 2024.
Mercedes
You always felt this would be a colossal season for the former dominant force in Formula One. Finally, though, they seem to be making some real progress. It’s no coincidence that it coincided with an admission that their unique concept wasn’t the way forward. Instead, they have gone with a more conventional route and have found themselves competitive at the front again.
There do remain questions of George Russel’s tyre management and overall race craft, although the twenty-six-year-old has out-qualified Lewis Hamilton on eight weekends out of ten. Yet the seven-time world champion seems more assured during race day and produces an overall more consistent display.
The recent high point totals between the two though means that although the drivers’ championship is unlikely, they’re in with a real shout of winning back the constructors.
Aston Martin
After such a strong start to last season, Aston Martin have tailed off greatly. They are yesterday’s news. While they started the season strong, scoring points consistently they have yet again witnessed performance slump. Fernando Alonso who does the heavy lifting at the best of times due to a consistently underperforming Lance Stroll, has managed a points finish in just one of the last four races.
The noise from the team is that they have a much better more complete car than this time last season, although as mentioned with Ferrari, motorsport is a relative game and in real terms, they have stepped back considerably. They will be hoping to get some sort of momentum going in Austria this week.
RB Visa Cash App
Last week in Spain was incredibly disappointing for the Red Bull sister team. Especially after Canada when Daniel Ricciardo managed to get his RB just two-tenths off pole in fifth place. That all seemed to evaporate last week as the Aussie drove a solid race but finished just 15th with Tsunoda back in 19th.
With Perez dreadfully underperforming, eyes do fall on this team to see if either has what it takes to step up. For most of the season, Tsuonda has outperformed an out-of-sorts Ricciardo, although that seems to be a tide-turning in recent weeks.
Nonetheless, both drivers are getting more out of their equipment than the Mexican and you wonder how long it will stay like that before Horner decides to stick or twist.
Alpine
The most yo-yo team in F1, always on a five-year product, always underfunded by the Renault base, always a bit of a mess. In the most recent state of the Alpine works team, there have been steady improvements from a torrid start to the season.
The French pairing (Gasly and Ocon) have brought home points in both of the last two races. What makes this more encouraging is the fact that it’s happened in Montreal and Barcelona, two distinctively different tracks. We only need to look at the RB Visa Cash App to see their negative fluctuation.
Another double points finish this week and they could start to establish themselves as a serious midfield team, and perhaps attract a man by the name of Carlos Sainz.
Haas
Haas have fell foul to the points system quite often this season. If anything, they have been one of the most unlucky teams on the grid. Nico Hulkenburg has finished just one place out of the points in five of the last seven races. It truly is a story of what might’ve been .
Kevin Magnussen on the other hand has been picking up points on his licence rather than for the championship. He is being handily outperformed by his teammate and making rookie errors a plenty.
While the limitations of Haas will always make it tough to raise their ceiling they have created a car which can pounce on mishaps from those in front. A bit of chaos, or a likely safety car and they could find themselves in position to strike.
Kick Sauber
It feels as though in the final two years before the Audi 2026, the Swiss team is somewhat going through the motions. Without being disrespectful they give off the air of the least relevant team on the paddock currently.
That being said, in what has been a season full of struggles there were some positive signs last week at Barcelona. There was some genuinely decent pace with Valtteri Bottas finding himself just two-tenths off a second q3 appearance of the season.
In the race trim they also had pace which rivalled that of the Aston Martin and Haas and bettered that of the RB and Williams. Yet a bizarre strategy to put Bottas on two soft stints then a hard – missing out the medium compound which was the strongest on the day – meant that what could’ve been a possible surge for points was made impossible. If they can establish themselves in q2 again this week then perhaps a bit of momentum can be built, otherwise, it’ll prove to be another unsustainable flash in the pan.
Williams
Where to start? Since James Vowles took over last year there hasn’t been a great deal of progress on the track. All the noise from behind the scenes seems to be that a better culture is being created and that it takes time to re-establish yourself in such a cut-throat business.
As it stands though they are second from bottom in the constructors, and had it not been for a typically over-achieving Alex Albon the picture could be much worse. It seems a certainty that Logan Sargeant will give up his seat at the end of the season, it’s an experiment which just hasn’t worked.
If Williams can get the FW44 into a reasonably competitive window then Alex Albon might be able to wrestle it into a points position, I wouldn’t hold my breath though.
Winner: Max Verstappen
Boo, boring, I get it. How can you look past the Dutchman though, he drives so well around the Speilburg ring and despite the dominance that his car seems to have lost he is still finding a way to cross the finish line first.
Podium Places: Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris
Ferrari are due a performance recently, and with much of the characteristics of this track seeming to suit their car there is no reason why Leclerc can’t reignite his rivalry with Verstappen and be close on his heals this weekend.
2024 has been Lando Norris best start to a season bar none and coming to Austria he will be flowing with confidence. The track where he scored his first podium back in 2020, he will repeat this feat although have to fight off two hungry Mercedes.
Dark Horse : Pierre Gasly
Having just commited his long term future to Alpine, Pierre Gasly will be looking to rediscover the form which got him the move in the first place. The Frenchman has scored three consecutive points positions, and after Ocon’s rash move in Monacco, Gasly has cemented himself as the main man in Alpine.
Don’t expect a fight for a win or anything of the likes, however a p7 or p6 finish could be possible if the cards fall his way.
Beyond The Score 
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