The difference a year makes, eh?
The turnaround from a McLaren side which was fighting to make q3 and often q1 has been nothing short of remarkable, and it’s getting recognition from around the paddock. Christian Horner went as far as to admit that they are currently the closest threat to his Red Bull team.
Recognition from Rivals
He said, “Arguably over the last couple of races they have been the main competitor,. They have definitely added performance to their car, they have made a step, so we expect them to be competitive at all circuits.
In year three of these rules there is always going to be convergence. We are seeing exactly that. The look of the cars is converging, the performance is converging. We will see more races like Sundays with very fine margins.”
Meanwhile over at the Mercedes garage it’s Toto Wolff who is tipping his hat towards the papaya orange, and is looking to take a leaf out their book to help combat a struggling Mercedes side.
He admits, “It’s fantastic recovery story, when you look at where McLaren were 12 months ago. We have to have respect how they have done things and more competition at the front is good for the sport.
I’m not looking at that with envy, quite the contrary, I’m looking at that and saying this is what we need to achieve, because they’ve been able to do that. It’s just good engineering.”
Steady Improvement
It’s been somewhat of an eventful journey for McLaren to return to a place near the top of the tree.
Since 2018 when they finished a measly ninth, there has been steady progress which leads them to where they sit today. Of course, it hasn’t been linear, sport rarely is.
After a major improvement in 2019, a team that was once laughed at was picking up respect around the paddock. Daniel Ricciardo- then high-flying in a Renault placing it fourth in the drivers championship – already committed his future to McLaren before the start of a Covid-stricken season.
A sign of the dramatic improvement would be the Aussie winning McLaren’s first grand prix since 2012, albeit he would struggle more than his English counterpart. It was clear that the car was in a place that under the right conditions and in the right window it could compete at the top. Although Norris was still young and developing, the experience lay in Ricciardo’s court. During his two-year tenure though he failed to maximise the car’s potential all too often as he couldn’t adapt his breaking style. He spoke about how the input-process-output element of driving the MCL35 and MCL36. What he learned during his Red Bull and Renault days didn’t transpire, the car wasn’t behaving as he wished. He could no longer drive instinctively and in a flow state, he couldn’t push it to the limit. Even in his two years of struggles, they finished an impressive fourth and fifth, with a prime Daniel Ricciardo though you can’t help but think that would be much higher.
| Year | Finish | Pairing | Driver Placings |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 9th | Stoffel Vandoorne and Fernando Alonso | 16th and 15th |
| 2018 | 6th | Stoffel Vandoorne and Fernando Alonso | 16th and 11th |
| 2019 | 4th | Lando Norris and Carlos Sainz | 11th and 6th |
| 2020 | 3rd | Lando Norris and Carlos Sainz | 9th and 5th |
| 2021 | 4th | Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris | 6th and 8th |
| 2022 | 5th | Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris | 7th and 11th |
| 2023 | 4th | Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri | 6th and 9th |
| 2024 (currently) | 3rd | Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri | 4th and 6th |
Just what Formula One needed
Without a doubt, it’s what Formula One needed. With Max Verstappen strolling to victory in four of the opening five races by an average of fifteen seconds (Australia saw a DNF for the Dutchman) there was legitimate fear that this would be another untouchable season with little variety or excitement at the front.
Since then though Norris has won a grand Prix having finished second the week before, and made Verstappen work for the top podium place in Imola. With just 13 laps to go Norris found himself six seconds behind, by the last lap the gap had been cut to just seven-tenths . Admittedly closing a gap is one thing while passing is another however it lies in contrast to what we saw largely last season plus the start of this calendar year.
Moreover, it’s refreshing to see McLaren be the one taking the fight to Red Bull as much as Ferrari. Formula One has felt like somewhat of a closed shop recently. Mercedes and Red Bull have dominated the last fifteen years with Ferrari seeming the only other possible disruptor. It shows that it’s possible for the midfield teams you do things right, you can compete.
The turnaround
In many ways, it’s the turnaround that has made such a revival so impressive. Let’s not forget that many fans were calling for Zak Brown’s name after McLaren started the second consecutive season with a stutter. The reality is though that this wasn’t unexpected. They admitted they got the approach wrong and warned that the first few weeks of the season would likely be a write-off anyways.
It was around twelve months ago that Aston Martin were being praised as the team bridging the gap and fighting at the top. Fernando Alonso managed six podiums in his opening eight races. Suddenly the Spaniard’s move to jump ship from Alpine seemed genius.
Yet how sustainable it was we will never know. The wonderful irony was that Aston Martin had done a turnaround themselves from a poor start to the 2022 season. A turbulent start saw Sebastian Vettel miss the opening two races, and they never managed a single point in Bahrain, Jhedda, or Melbourne. A change in approach to the new regulations saw some progress paired with successful development through the season. They finished the season seventh, hardly perfect but definitely respectable.
Even so, whether this was truly sustainable remained to be seen. Could they continue to develop the car at a rate that saw them remain near the top of the food chain, or would it prove to be a flash in the pan? Sadly for Aston Martin it was the latter. After early July Alonso managed just one podium in fourteen races and it was McLaren who overtook them.
In the last eight races, Lando Norris managed five out of eight podiums while rookie driver Oscar Piastri also pipped in with two.
Miami upgrade
The big question on fans’ lips was whether such a stream of improvement could travel into 2024, or was it a case of the big guns focusing more on next season already with McLaren taking advantage in the short term.
It was clear from the off that the Woking-based team had continued their momentum into the next season with the opening three races seeing two p4s from Piastri and a p3 from Norris. Up until now, McLaren’s two drivers have appeared in every q3 session and out of 7 races there has been a position in the points thirteen out of fourteen times. The consistency of both drivers has seen them reach a new level they failed to be able to do in 2021 and 2022.
Yet, their ability to get incrementally better over the course of a season remains, instead of going from F to C, this season they have jumped from a B+ to an A-. The upgrade which was placed on Norris’ car in Miami and Piastri in Imola has allowed them to reach a new level.
They expected to progress as Stella forecasted, however, the Italian admitted that the data has been even better than expected.
He explained “We know what the simulation would say in terms of how much the upgrades will deliver. On track, once again we seem to find slightly more. It’s almost like you have an extra premium once you get your car to work better.”
It could be argued that this is a weakness disguised as a strength. After all, it’s still a lack of understanding at play here. The more positive way of looking at it though is that it’s made the car much easier to drive which allows the drivers to maximise it’s potential and find an extra ten per cent.
That seems to be what Oscar Piastri feels.
He spoke to The Race “It doesn’t feel that much different, just faster.
It’s definitely making the car a bit nicer to drive, but whenever the car is quicker, it’s always a bit nicer to drive. Our strengths and weaknesses seem to be a little bit different now, our high-speed is not as strong as it once was but our low-speed is a lot stronger than it has been. I think we can understand the majority of why that is. We can be pretty confident wherever we go now.”
Importance of baseline level
In any sport whether it’s Formula One or it’s tennis, whether it’s football or snooker, the baseline level is important. Okay, it’s a car we are referring to however the principle still stands. Watch a tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Dennis Shapovalov for example. The highlight real may show Shapovalov hitting single-handed backhand drive volley winners from time to time, or an on-the-run forehand winner round the net post. Yet, Djokovic will hit with speed, precision and depth as indefatigable as a robot. His average level will never drop below an eight out of ten while Shapovalov and his aggressive risk-filled game style will see him fall to a two out of ten performance all too often. No prizes for guessing who enjoys more success.
We hear it often in football as well. Winning one nil away to a scrappy relegation fighter when you are far from your best can often be labeled “the sign of champions.” You won’t play well every week so you need to be able to win without doing so.
It’s no different in Formula One. McLaren if they wish to be a serious contender need to find themselves competitive in tracks of all characteristics, that’s often the differentiator between the top and the upper midfield.
Confidence
The other thing that must be remembered is driver confidence. As mentioned earlier the ability to feel at one with the car and in a flow state is imperative. To find the maximum performance level you need to be able to push to the limit and have confidence it will stick and not spin. That’s why the data may may be making for better reading than expected as Norris and Piastri are so talented they can take the car above the expected ceiling as they feel so at ease.
We often see the opposite with developments. Engineers scratching their heads at the pit wall wondering why upgrades aren’t translating to the floor. Sure, the car may be quicker in its performance window but if the handling is inconsistent how can you expect the driver to extract? There is no point adding inconsistent downforce, it becomes utterly useless.
Red Bull struggles?
Are Red Bull struggling? Finally?
Perhaps such a suggestion is premature, they have won all races so far bar two. The standard has been set so high that such a minor blip has sent shockwaves through the F1 world. It cannot be ignored though that many of the off-track events have cast a gloomy cloud over the team, for such a dominant force there is no feel-good factor.
This weekend saw some minor upgrades for Red Bull to the front wing and nose of their car. Yet, had it not been for Nico Hulkenberg being Max Verstappen’s “toe-buddy” for qualifying the Dutchman could have found himself behind Norris and Piastri on the time sheets, pair that with an unlucky penalty for the Aussie and Sunday could have looked much different.
While Verstappen still picked up a Grand Prix victory, he was visibly unhappy with the Rb 20’s behavior. He complained that it was difficult to drive all weekend, particularly on Friday and during the race. On the hard compound, he seemed to lack grip as they wore down so quickly and were never really in the optimal temperature.
In contrast, Norris could attack more on the hard compounds and carry a far greater speed through the slower corner. It’s for that reason that had the Grand Prix lasted a couple more laps it could’ve got spice. Nevertheless, a few more laps could’ve induced a different strategy so it is all a bit what if-eery
Sergio Perez
It’s time for Sergio Perez to step up. With Red Bull’s car being so dominant in recent years he has had somewhat of an easy ride. Quite often qualifying far from the top, the superior race pace of the Red Bull has allowed him to plow through the field straight back up onto the podium. All it reads is p1 and p3, and it seems like a successful weekend.
The reality is that if the gap continues between Verstappen and Perez to the level that it has, picking up the constructor standings may no longer be a formality. Last season the gap was 0.495 seconds in qualifying. With an imperious RB 19, that may only be a couple of places that can be made up quite easily come Sunday anyway. With a competitive McLaren and Ferrari (as there was in Imola) that suddenly turns into a p11 in qualifying and a p8.
| Year | Verstappen partner | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Ricciardo | -0.684 |
| 2017 | Ricciardo | +0.313 |
| 2018 | Ricciardo | +0.433 |
| 2019 | Albon | +0.524 |
| 2020 | Albon | +0.633 |
| 2021 | Perez | +0.528 |
| 2022 | Perez | +0.331 |
| 2023 | Perez | +0.495 |
When we look at this table he isn’t doing much better than Alex Albon who was given the sack, moreover with the full field being closer bunched together relatively he is performing poorer.
Plus, if recent trends continue it will only get worse. Alex Albon explained that as the year goes on the car is developed more to Verstappen’s liking. It become more sensitive which allows it to reach higher speeds. Essentially, it is developed to reach it’s full potential but only Verstappen seems to have the skill set to execute it. As it becomes more and more tricky to drive, life will only get harder for the Mexican.
The Reality
While the constructor’s standings could hang in the balance, the reality is that Verstappen is still a major favourite for the driver’s standings. Not only has he built a lead, but it comes back to the baseline level. Imola was a weekend where he struggled, was unhappy with the car’s behaviour and didn’t have Sergio Perez anywhere near enough to help in the race. Yet, he still came away with maximum points extending his lead.
If there is to be a miracle and Verstappen doesn’t end up world champion come the end of the season, one of two things will have to change. Either Verstappen will need to start picking up more DNF’s or on the weekends when he struggles he will need to be punished to a greater extent.
It has the writing on the walls of a longer-scale version of the 2020 season, with Verstappen in Lewis Hamilton’s shoes. A comfortable championship but some solid competitive races along the way.
If this proves to be true that can only mean one thing, we are in for a treat for 2025.
Beyond The Score 
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