I was sitting watching Sky Sports News just this Monday night when the famous yellow light covered my TV screen from head to toe. It could only mean one thing for the cultured sports fans: breaking news approached. It boldly read in angry thick capitals: MANCHESTER UNITED SHOCKED.
Perhaps, it was a dreadful attempt at irony from an out-of-touch Sky Sports News, as for those in the away end in Selhurst Park it was little surprise. They witnessed yet another lacklustre performance this season from a team that seems to have taken it upon itself to break all the wrong records. It’s now just seven wins out of a possible eighteen league ties outside Old Trafford. During Erik Ten Hag’s tenure they have managed just fifteen wins out of a possible thirty-seven (with just one coming against a side in the top half). To add to the misery, for the first time ever a team wearing the Manchester Red has accumulated thirteen losses in a top-flight campaign.
All joking aside, the fact that there was really little surprise with such a result says a lot about this Manchester United team. A tricky Monday night fixture away to a Palace side flourishing under Glasner’s reign with Elise and Eze finally playing consistently together, was any other outcome a real possibility? With four goals in the space of fifty-four minutes (and it should’ve been more) flying by Andre Onana, Crystal Palace had completed their first-ever league double against Manchester United.
Erik Ten Hag was hanging on by a thread before Monday’s trip to the capital, he is now in a full free fall. It’s never nice to call for someone to be stripped of their livelihood. With the performances staring us in the face though, on what basis can he stay?
I understand the “trust the process” side of things. We are part of an era where managers are often unfairly dismissed.
Yet to apply that philosophy, there needs to be a sign that the team is improving, or at least not getting much worse.
Jurgen Klopp got time at Liverpool, as year after year they became more competitive, to the point where they could compete for Champions League and Premier League trophies. Mikel Arteta was given a few campaigns to turn Arsenal into a title-contending machine. It was a bumpy road in North London but the signs were always there that progress was being made. He took a few seasons removing dead wood and shaping the squad in his image. While he did that the team improved and gradually got more competitive, not the opposite way around.
The reality is that this is a Manchester United side that reaches new lows every week and there is very little to suggest this is a trend set to change.
Football is a result-based business. If you don’t deliver you don’t last long. You become a thing of the past with a new boss coming in to take your reign backing themselves to be the difference maker, and the cycle repeats.
While Manchester United have had an abysmal season, this can happen for the traditional Big Six from time to time. They don’t need to look very far to see Chelsea sitting seventh in the table having done even worse the previous season.
However, while it’s been an underwhelming season for the west-London club, they’ve had what one may call a “big club bad season”. Allow me to explain.
Chelsea have failed the correct way to an extent. Their overall expected goal (xg) differential sits at +17.1 which illustrates that throughout the season, they have created more than most of their opponents. Much of their frustration has come from their wastefulness in front of goal, rather than a poor structural setup.
When we look at Chelsea’s “shock results” (losses to clubs outside the traditional big six), their creativity hasn’t been reflected in output.
| Opponent | Home/Away | Score | XG Differential |
| West Ham | Away | 1-3 | +0.69 |
| Forrest | Home | 0-1 | +1.54 |
| Villa | Home | 0-1 | +1.26 |
| Brentford | Home | 0-2 | -0.13 |
| Newcastle | Away | 1-4 | -1.83 |
| Everton | Away | 0-2 | -0.27 |
| Wolves | Away | 1-2 | +0.79 |
| Wolves | Home | 2-4 | -0.26 |
Overall after those eight games Chelsea have a positive xg output of 1.79. While this metric lacks context as being behind means often you will chase a game and create more as the opposing side defends, it still shows an unusuality. A few of those results could likely have been draws or wins. Then they might find themselves fighting higher up the table.
In recent times they have developed an identity. Palmer gives them goals and links up brilliantly with Madueke, Gallagher gives them steel tenacity in the midfield, meanwhile, Chalobah is beginning to flourish at the back, They aren’t serious contenders for a title next season or anything near the likes, although the squad is starting to gel and they are heading in the right direction.
For Manchester United, the story is entirely different. They haven’t lost like a big side, the underlying numbers suggest that they don’t merit a fight for the European spots, if anything they have luck on their side to even be eighth. When we compare them to Chelsea, the performances and processes couldn’t be more contrary.
Their overall xg differential stands at -10.1. To put this into perspective only Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United are worse. They also have faced the most shots of any side in the league this season. Is this a shock? Not for those who watch week in, week out. Can you remember the last time a Manchester United side put in a genuinely convincing performance?
Let’s compare with Chelsea’s “shock losses”.
| Opponent | Home/Away | Score | XG Differential |
| Brighton | Home | 1-3 | -0.74 |
| Palace | Home | 0-1 | +0.4 |
| Newcastle | Away | 0-1 | -2.02 |
| Bournemouth | Home | 0-3 | -1.32 |
| West Ham | Away | 0-2 | -0.22 |
| Forrest | Away | 1-2 | +0.06 |
| Fulham | Home | 1-2 | +0.52 |
| Palace | Away | 0-4 | -1.40 |
The story is completely different. This amounts to a differential of -4.72 which suggests they have got exactly what they deserved. Moreover, they have often been outplayed in games where they have picked up results. For example, a 1-1 draw away to Brentford, a 2-2 draw with Liverpool, or a 1-0 win against Wolves, the list goes on.
With Manchester United the debate can often turn somewhat existential. The scapegoat for what we see on the pitch can often be pointed up to those in the boardroom. The Gary Neville argument I like to call it.
It’s not complete nonsense of course. The sample size of failed appointees is too large to suggest that (Ragnick, Solksjaer, Mourinho, Van Gaal, Moyes). When so many bosses aren’t able to cut it, it’s fair to suggest they aren’t the overriding problem.
The argument about culture is often thrown about as well. Many feel it’s a dressing room that has too much influence and can be the cause of a gaffer’s downfall. It was only a couple of weeks ago that Garnacho liked a tweet criticising Ten Haag for subbing him off.
At the same time though, that shouldn’t give the Dutchman a free pass. Take a look at some of the managers above him in the table. Ange Postecoglou has Tottenham fighting in a battle for Champions League football, the Spurs environment was equally if not more toxic last year. Established managers have failed there. When results come that is all forgotten though.
Or Unai Emery’s Aston Villa, look at the state they were in when Steven Gerrard passed the baton.
A manager should be assessed on their tactics. With Ten Haag that’s quite difficult as there seems to barely be a blueprint. His style at Ajax was distinctive, with quick rotations and positional play. He vowed to bring that to Manchester and then went back on his word feeling that he didn’t have the players to do so (a fair assessment), The sign of a top manager is that when they come to that conclusion: how do they adapt?
Last season was promising, Ten Haag delivered a trophy, a final and a third-placed finish. The fundamental principle was control, and the signing of Casemiro paired with Fred and Fernandes gave them just that. Yet, a 7-0 loss to Liverpool plus a historic 3-0 defeat away to Sevilla highlighted glaring weaknesses.
This season it’s been a mess on the pitch. At times it looks as though they play without a midfield. There has always been a holding midfielder but the two number eight’s are often given so much freedom that one man is left to plug the gaps, which leaves vast amounts of space. Players can dribble from their defensive third to attacking third without pressure at times. They press at times, but rarely in unison, which is worse than not pressing in the first place.
It’s fair to point out they have suffered their fair share of injuries. The issue is they aren’t alone. Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle have all seen crisis strike them this season, none have coped as poorly.
Nevertheless Manchester United find themselves in a FA Cup final. It makes no sense, which makes sense in a way. They were just centimetres from being knocked out 4-3 by Coventry from a position of being 3-0 up, kind of sums up their season. Poor performances and outcomes, but it could be even worse.
When you walk the walk you must talk the talk. Throughout Ten Haag’s Manchester United career, he hasn’t done so. He mentioned the era of Manchester City dominance ending, only Liverpool have won a title otherwise and Arsenal seem the only other side poised to do so. In pre-season, he boldly stated he wished for Manchester United to be the “best transition side in the world”. If anything they are the worst. He recently called his side “One of the most dynamic and entertaining teams in the league”. Sure they have beat Wolves and Liverpool 4-3, but they have also lost 4-3 against Chelsea and Copenhagen plus 3-2 against Villa. It’s not stacking up.
Even if they somehow manage a victory against Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, it should be a case of Ten Haag moving aside and leaving on a high. Otherwise, another season of mediocrity awaits them. Unless of course, they want to remain the league’s entertainers. Entertainers for rival fans.
Beyond The Score 
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