Beyond The Score

On Wednesday night, two sides who have had rather disappointing domestic campaigns will walk out to greet 67,000 fans at the Puskas Arena in Budapest. One side with a 100% record in Europa League finals against one with a manager boasting a 100% record in European finals. It truly is footballing heritage. Sevilla versus Roma, Spain versus Italy, Luis Mendilibar versus Jose Mourinho.
Sevilla come into the final with sky-high confidence as newly appointed manager Jose Luis Mendilibar has breathed fresh life into a squad destined for relegation. His unique style and identity are fascinating and have proved effective in his stint to this date. He famously quoted in a 2020 El Paris interview: “I’m the anti-modern manager, I don’t go around with a tablet under my arm or spend all day on the computer. In football, the best thing is to do the simplest thing possible. The hardest thing to do is to make it so simple.”
With the likes of Opta providing in-depth statistics about every football match you could ever wish for, the average fan can read up on average positions, expected goals and momentum trackers. With information at our fingertips more than ever before it’s easy to forget that football is simply about trying to get one set of eleven people to put a ball in the net more times than the other. A fanbase doesn’t care about your XG (expected goal), they care about your real goal. (One of the nails in the coffin for Graham Potter’s Chelsea stint was when Potter spoke after a loss to Aston Villa saying: “If you look at the XG of the McGinn goal, it’s not that big a chance.”) It can be forgotten when surfing through endless pages of stats that you can control the game without controlling the ball and vice versa.

When Sampoili was relieved of his duties in March, Medilibar was left with an uphill relegation battle to climb. Sevilla’s form fell had off a cliff and found themselves just two points above safety. A trip away to Old Trafford saw a reserve team take to the pitch as it became the second priority to surviving in La Liga.
The first thing he did was give the players more freedom. No longer were they forced to spend the night before every game locked up in a hotel. Likewise, his tactics matched his relaxed character and were full of flexibility. Reminiscent of Carlo Ancelotti in a way.
Players were on board straight away. As a result, their quality of football became easier on the eye, which led to better results. Despite Mendilibar having only managed two European games previously before travelling to Manchester, he showed no signs of a lack of experience. Over two legs, Sevilla breezed through 5-2 on aggregate. The domestic form would improve as well, as Sevilla’s relegation battle became a distant memory. If results fall their way this weekend, Conference League qualification is possible. 2.07 points per match, and only two losses in sixteen, the turnaround has been remarkable. In his eight league games in charge, Sevilla has more points than any other side (19).
Against an established Juventus outfit in the semi-final, they recorded more shots, shots on target and corners. They will fancy their chances tomorrow as Juventus have had a more consistent Serie A campaign than Mourinho’s Roma.
Jose Mourinho echoes some of Mendilibar’s views about overcomplicating football. He claimed that people who don’t understand football analyse it with stats after a 2018 loss at the Etihad when his side was criticised for an extremely low expected goal ratio. After losing to Liverpool in a tense encounter in 2020 he ranted “You love the word possession and you love the stats.
It is a little bit like the efficiency of players and sometimes you say: ‘The stats say Player B had 92% of efficiency in his passing.’ But the stats don’t say that player only made passes of two metres, they don’t say that the player was a centre-back who only passed to the other centre-back. Or a No 6 who only passed to a No 8.”

And the guy that had 65% of efficiency on his pass is the guy that made the assist, is the guy that makes the adept passes, is the guy that makes 60-metre passes to change the direction of the play. So the stats many, many times are like an incredible piece of meat or fish but badly cooked. It doesn’t tell me much. What tells me [much] is the number of goals you score and the number of chances that you create.”
Roma will aim to build on last season’s Conference League trophy by adding to their European collection this season. As it stands, Europa League football will be guaranteed with a victory at home to Sepzia on the weekend. That won’t be enough for i Lupi. Four long seasons without football at the elite European league must end, and the reason for bringing Mourinho back to the club was to reach that level again.
In contrast with Sevilla, Roma’s form has left a lot to be desired. Winless in their last seven Serie A outings, it’s overall been a disappointing domestic campaign. Last season though before defeating Feyenoord to lift the Conference League they had won just one of their last six league clashes. This isn’t unprecedented territory. Having an eye on the final is understandable.

Similar to Sevilla, they are never afraid to go direct. Long balls to Abraham often prove effective in finding an easier route to the goal. Look at their only goal against Bayern Leverkusen, Bove’s finish was clean, and it all started from a long ball up to Abraham with the Englishman able to chest the ball and link up.
Typically, a 3-5-2 formation is deployed for Roma. While Mourinho is often famed for negative football, this shape is often followed by aggressive pressing from their two strikers and three midfielders, in a box-like structure. They are a counter-attacking side, but to label them as “boring” or “anti-football” would be ill-informed. With their backs against the wall, their style can be adapted as shown away to Leverkusen. They simply transfer to a 5-3-2, with Mancini every so often leaving his centre-back roll to close down and chase the striker away from the penalty box.

It is unusual for a team to reach the final having shared just 47% of possession on their way. As Mourinho said though, he aims to control the game, not the ball. While it may look as though his Roma side have struggled through, football is a game of chess, and strategically they have won their battles.

It is recognised by opposing managers, however much harder to conquer. Leverkusen boss Xabi Alonso spoke about their semi-final loss saying: “Tactically we expected it to be like this. They have clear ideas, they defend well and have two strong forwards ready for second balls, with Bove and Pellegrini between the lines, and always a clear idea of how to control the game.”
Often, Roma and Mourinho are criticised for this style. However, if it is a winning formula, is this an issue? Football is a result-based business. Winning is what matters most.
It’ll be a fascinating spectacle with inevitably, one perfect record ending. I would have my cards with Roma narrowly. In all of Sevilla’s Europa League clashes, they haven’t faced an outfit as defensively sound as Mourinho’s Roma and it will likely be a bridge too far for a side that is ultimately running hot.